Photo Credit: Ryan Casey Aguinaldo, via WikiMedia Commons

San Diego Padres star Manny Machado announced his plans to opt out of his contract following the 2023 season, causing a lot of talk and speculation on what’s going to happen.

Most players opt out to negotiate salary, and while Machado made a strong case for himself during the 2022 season, he’s already making $30 million AAV through 2028 if he sticks out his contract.

This offseason, the only two free agent who signed a bigger contract was Aaron Judge (nine years worth $360 million, $40 million AAV). Judge landed the largest contract in MLB history for breaking a 61-year-old single season home run record of 61 homers set by Roger Maris.

In all of the league, Machado is tied for the fifth-highest salary with Philadelphia Phillies star Trea Turner. While the market is hot and gave out record-high contracts, Machado is pushing his luck.

He practically carried San Diego’s lineup during Fernando Tatis Jr.’s absence, especially in the first half of the season. He’s a great player worth a lot of money, and Padres’ chairman Peter Seidler has expressed that Machado is his top priority moving forward.

The Padres have been huge spenders and are coming up hot over the past few seasons. At the trade deadline, they acquired Juan Soto, which was the biggest and most costly trade of the deadline. In the offseason, they signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal worth $280 million.

In terms of money and contract length, it seems most likely that Machado will stay in San Diego.

Manny Machado could be a Padre for life

The Padres will likely dish out a huge deal of money to keep Machado around, and if they do so, Machado is likely to stay if his intention isn’t to get away from San Diego.

Unless he has a historic season, he likely won’t get a long-term offer much higher than what he’s already at from another team, and if he does, the Padres will likely keep up with the offers.

In 2022, he had one of the best seasons of his career at-bat, slashing .298/.366/.531 for an OPS of .897. Among all third basemen in the league, he had the second-most home runs (32), most runs (100), second-best batting average, second-best on-base percentage, third-best slugging percentage, best offensive rating (41.9) and best WAR (7.4).

Statistically, he’s one of the best third basemen in the league, and he’ll likely be a hot commodity. However, already having one of the highest contracts in MLB, he will truly be pushing the market to its limits.

The division rivals, San Francisco Giants, made a big push for Judge in the offseason, so they could be on the hunt for him. However, Shohei Ohtani is also expected to hit the market, and he has the potential to get an even larger contract than Judge.

Ohtani will likely be more of a priority than Machado for many teams, and San Diego will probably push the hardest for Machado as they continue to go through strong roster development and aim to become a championship team.

If he’s not trying to get away from San Diego and Seidler keeps him his top priority, Machado will likely be a Padre for life.